Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.201296 0.240918 0.288083 0.348886 0.425948 0.521379 6.500982e-01
2025-08-03 0.161994 0.212870 0.280903 0.380592 0.526516 0.738205 1.080035e+00
2025-08-10 0.128279 0.182039 0.261316 0.391272 0.608343 0.975156 1.687640e+00
2025-08-17 0.100532 0.152186 0.235006 0.384983 0.668020 1.222674 2.526836e+00
2025-08-24 0.084156 0.135475 0.224702 0.403219 0.785827 1.667736 4.262941e+00
2025-08-31 0.071151 0.121033 0.214412 0.419639 0.917966 2.276552 7.415195e+00
2025-09-07 0.061082 0.109273 0.205885 0.438187 1.076890 3.154413 1.363929e+01
2025-09-14 0.052907 0.099061 0.197606 0.455585 1.257125 4.390809 2.644161e+01
2025-09-21 0.044934 0.087322 0.182662 0.450925 1.379116 5.685981 4.848573e+01
2025-09-28 0.035433 0.070259 0.150854 0.386934 1.255683 5.721492 6.135769e+01
2025-10-05 0.031632 0.064926 0.145865 0.400345 1.447268 7.982721 1.393224e+02
2025-10-12 0.029113 0.061946 0.146018 0.431381 1.761873 12.248674 4.300323e+02
2025-10-19 0.026643 0.058767 0.145467 0.464112 2.165388 19.789114 1.978319e+03
2025-10-26 0.024153 0.054984 0.142180 0.486737 2.579185 31.349209 1.423769e+04
2025-11-02 0.021390 0.049889 0.133466 0.483243 2.844616 44.648918 1.648389e+05
2025-11-09 0.018687 0.044401 0.121948 0.461435 2.958025 57.999645 6.252450e+06
2025-11-16 0.017018 0.041424 0.117778 0.472749 3.409886 93.316204 NaN
2025-11-23 0.015553 0.038719 0.113737 0.483170 3.920118 154.865180 NaN
2025-11-30 0.014323 0.036448 0.110561 0.497210 4.560403 276.094892 NaN
2025-12-07 0.013233 0.034374 0.107500 0.510810 5.298940 520.612760 NaN
2025-12-14 0.012007 0.031645 0.101143 0.500166 5.689546 840.230759 NaN
2025-12-21 0.010253 0.026988 0.086093 0.424242 4.786176 680.240651 NaN
2025-12-28 0.009595 0.025709 0.084238 0.436286 5.540847 1418.840013 NaN